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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as OFI edge out Panserraikos 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OFI beat Panserraikos 3-2 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.38 xG and Panserraikos 0.97 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. OFI beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Panserraikos outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against Panserraikos attack 0.86 / defence 1.12, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OFI 46% | Draw 27% | Panserraikos 27%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 52%, Panserraikos 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OFI's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Panserraikos's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — OFI 1.13 PPG, Panserraikos 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panserraikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights