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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as OFI edge out Panetolikos 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OFI beat Panetolikos 1-0 at Pankritio Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.51 xG and Panetolikos 0.83 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Panetolikos landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.16 / defence 0.98 against Panetolikos attack 0.77 / defence 0.92, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OFI 53% | Draw 26% | Panetolikos 21%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 65%, Panetolikos 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OFI's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Panetolikos's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — OFI 1.10 PPG, Panetolikos 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights