OFI 0-2 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 44%, yet in-form Panathinaikos provide a compelling counter-argument — this OFI vs Panathinaikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 2 as OFI welcome Panathinaikos to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
OFI — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OFI's home record at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panathinaikos have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Panathinaikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Panathinaikos's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Panathinaikos — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, OFI have won 1, Panathinaikos 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2022, ended 3–2 with OFI winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Panathinaikos in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 56% versus Panathinaikos 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 53% | Panathinaikos 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.39 xG and Panathinaikos 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.045 / defence 1.048 | Panathinaikos attack 1.039 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 0.976. Data: 27 OFI games / 27 Panathinaikos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: OFI 44% | Draw 27% | Panathinaikos 29%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Panathinaikos 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, OFI are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Panathinaikos (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: OFI 70% | Panathinaikos 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (27 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 44% | Draw 27% | Panathinaikos 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG OFI 1.39 / Panathinaikos 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.045 / def 1.048 | Panathinaikos attack 1.039 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.366 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: OFI (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Panathinaikos xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Panathinaikos kick off?
OFI vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Panathinaikos?
OFI 0 - 2 Panathinaikos.
Where is OFI vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Panathinaikos part of?
OFI vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 44% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both OFI and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Panathinaikos?
Record (2 meetings): OFI 1W | Draws 1 | Panathinaikos 0W.
What form are OFI and Panathinaikos in?
OFI (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Panathinaikos (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates OFI's attack at 1.04x the league average against Panathinaikos's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Panathinaikos's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (27/27 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
44%
2.26
27%
3.72
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
OFI xG
Total xG
2.45
1.06
Panathinaikos xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
7%
13.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are OFI and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for OFI and 1.06 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
OFI's recent record stands at 11W 11D 12L from 34 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Panathinaikos, meanwhile, have gone 18W 7D 9L across 34 games — 1.79 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Panathinaikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Panathinaikos by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OFI heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, OFI have managed 6W 4D 6L from 16 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panathinaikos's away record stands at 5W 4D 7L across 16 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panathinaikos's season.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.44 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Early Season
Panathinaikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 11W 11D 12L in their last 34 games (1.29 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 18W 7D 9L in their last 34 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Panathinaikos away?
OFI's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.38 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 1.19 PPG.
Have OFI or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OFI and Panathinaikos runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 4 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Panathinaikos have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Dec 2023, when Panathinaikos won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Panathinaikos specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
OFI
3
Draws
6
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 1, Panathinaikos have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2026, when Panathinaikos 4-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 62%, Panathinaikos 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (OFI) and 44% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Panathinaikos in 44%; Panathinaikos in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of OFI's recent matches and 38% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of OFI's recent games and 44% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panathinaikos cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat OFI 0-2 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.39 xG and Panathinaikos 1.06 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. OFI fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Panathinaikos outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.04 / defence 1.05 against Panathinaikos attack 1.04 / defence 0.97, drawn from 27/27 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it OFI 44% | Draw 27% | Panathinaikos 29%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Panathinaikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 53%, Panathinaikos 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.