OFI 1-3 Kifisia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Kifisia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kifisia make the trip to Pankritio Stadium to face OFI in Super League 1, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 September 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
OFI (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Pankritio Stadium, OFI have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — OFI are significantly better at Pankritio Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Kifisia have collected 1.00 PPG across 4 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 1D 2L. Last five: L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.75. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Kifisia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Kifisia are 0.50 PPG clear of OFI in recent Super League 1 fixtures (1.00 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — OFI lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
OFI — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Kifisia — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 25% versus Kifisia 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 50% | Kifisia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.60 xG and Kifisia 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.004 / defence 1.134 | Kifisia attack 0.969 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.069. Kifisia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.236 — this is suppressing OFI's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 OFI games / 4 Kifisia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 47% | Draw 25% | Kifisia 28%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Kifisia 3.57. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, OFI are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kifisia (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OFI if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: OFI 50% | Kifisia 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Kifisia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Pankritio Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Sep 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 47% | Draw 25% | Kifisia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG OFI 1.60 / Kifisia 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.004 / def 1.134 | Kifisia attack 0.969 / def 1.236 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: OFI (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Kifisia xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Kifisia kick off?
OFI vs Kifisia kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 28 September 2025 at Pankritio Stadium.
What was the final score in OFI vs Kifisia?
OFI 1 - 3 Kifisia.
Where is OFI vs Kifisia being played?
The match is being played at Pankritio Stadium.
What competition is OFI vs Kifisia part of?
OFI vs Kifisia is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Kifisia?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 47% chance of winning, Kifisia a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Kifisia?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both OFI and Kifisia will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Kifisia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Kifisia?
Record (3 meetings): OFI 0W | Draws 2 | Kifisia 1W.
What form are OFI and Kifisia in?
OFI (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Kifisia (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
OFI's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Kifisia's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — Kifisia's attack (0.97x) against OFI's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 29/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
47%
2.13
25%
3.95
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
OFI xG
Total xG
2.77
1.17
Kifisia xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
6%
17.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Kifisia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are OFI and Kifisia expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for OFI and 1.17 for Kifisia, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Kifisia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, OFI have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 1D 2L record — D-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kifisia's form line: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Kifisia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for OFI against 1.00 for Kifisia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
OFI are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Kifisia are on 1.50 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OFI have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Kifisia in 75%.
Defensively: OFI have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Early Season
Kifisia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Kifisia in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Kifisia have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
Have OFI or Kifisia been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Kifisia in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OFI have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Kifisia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
OFI
3
Draws
2
Kifisia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Kifisia?
From 6 meetings on record, OFI have won 1, Kifisia have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Kifisia last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when OFI 2-0 Kifisia.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Kifisia?
Kifisia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
OFI see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Kifisia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 25%, Kifisia 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (OFI) and 50% (Kifisia).
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; OFI have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Kifisia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Kifisia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of OFI's recent matches and 75% of Kifisia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Kifisia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of OFI's recent games and 50% of Kifisia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Kifisia cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kifisia beat OFI 1-3 at Pankritio Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.60 xG and Kifisia 1.17 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Kifisia outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.00 / defence 1.13 against Kifisia attack 0.97 / defence 1.24, drawn from 29/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 47% | Draw 25% | Kifisia 28%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Kifisia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 50%, Kifisia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Kifisia's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.00 PPG, Kifisia 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kifisia win broke the near-deadlock. OFI shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kifisia scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.