OFI vs Iraklis 1908 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates OFI at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Iraklis 1908 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 13 as OFI welcome Iraklis 1908 to Pankritio Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 December 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, OFI have posted 6W 1D 3L at Pankritio Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Iraklis 1908 — All Games: 1W 4D 4L from 9 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.78 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.89 per game is modest, conceding 1.56 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Iraklis 1908, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Iraklis 1908 have posted 0W 3D 2L from 5 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
OFI carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.12 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.78. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Iraklis 1908 in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 44% versus Iraklis 1908 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 56% | Iraklis 1908 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.66 xG and Iraklis 1908 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.042 / defence 0.920 | Iraklis 1908 attack 0.739 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.010. Data: 35 OFI games / 9 Iraklis 1908 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 59% | Draw 27% | Iraklis 1908 14%. Fair-value odds: OFI 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | Iraklis 1908 7.14. The model has a clear lean to OFI (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates OFI as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OFI 30% | Iraklis 1908 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Iraklis 1908 | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Pankritio Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 59% | Draw 27% | Iraklis 1908 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 42% | xG OFI 1.66 / Iraklis 1908 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.042 / def 0.920 | Iraklis 1908 attack 0.739 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: OFI (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Iraklis 1908 xG
42%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Iraklis 1908 kick off?
OFI vs Iraklis 1908 is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Sunday 6 December 2026 at Pankritio Stadium.
Where is OFI vs Iraklis 1908 being played?
The match is being played at Pankritio Stadium.
What competition is OFI vs Iraklis 1908 part of?
OFI vs Iraklis 1908 is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Iraklis 1908?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 59% chance of winning, Iraklis 1908 a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Iraklis 1908?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both OFI and Iraklis 1908 will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Iraklis 1908 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Iraklis 1908?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OFI and Iraklis 1908 in?
OFI (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Iraklis 1908 (all comps): 1W-4D-4L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.56 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
OFI's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Iraklis 1908's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, Iraklis 1908's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
59%
1.69
27%
3.71
14%
7.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
OFI xG
Total xG
2.34
0.69
Iraklis 1908 xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
7.29
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
3%
38.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 10.9 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Iraklis 1908?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are OFI and Iraklis 1908 expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for OFI and 0.69 for Iraklis 1908, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Iraklis 1908?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
OFI come into this having played 9 games, going 5W 1D 3L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Iraklis 1908 sit at 0.78 PPG from 9 outings (1W 4D 4L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Iraklis 1908 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OFI carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Iraklis 1908 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
OFI's home form reads 3W 1D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — OFI are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Iraklis 1908 have taken 0.75 points per game from 4 outings (0W 3D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Iraklis 1908 are on 0.89 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: OFI have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Iraklis 1908
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Iraklis 1908 in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 5W 1D 3L in their last 9 games (1.78 PPG), while Iraklis 1908 have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Iraklis 1908 away?
OFI's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 2.50 PPG; Iraklis 1908 away: 0.75 PPG.
Have OFI or Iraklis 1908 been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Iraklis 1908 in 22%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Iraklis 1908 tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 50%, Iraklis 1908 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (OFI) and 25% (Iraklis 1908).
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Iraklis 1908 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Iraklis 1908?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of OFI's games and 75% of Iraklis 1908's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OFI vs Iraklis 1908 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of OFI's recent games and 25% of Iraklis 1908's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Iraklis 1908 tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Iraklis 1908 in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.