OFI vs Atromitos – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Pankritio Stadium plays host to OFI versus Atromitos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 7 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
OFI have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OFI at Pankritio Stadium this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pankritio Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — OFI are significantly better at Pankritio Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Atromitos (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Atromitos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Atromitos have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for OFI, 1.30 for Atromitos — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: OFI 2W, Atromitos 2W, 6D.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 2–1 with OFI winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
OFI goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 19% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Atromitos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 46% versus Atromitos 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 66% | Atromitos 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.48 xG and Atromitos 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.103 / defence 0.806 | Atromitos attack 0.883 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 0.998. Data: 29 OFI games / 29 Atromitos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: OFI 52% | Draw 34% | Atromitos 14%. Fair-value odds: OFI 1.92 | Draw 2.94 | Atromitos 7.14. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OFI if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: OFI 20% | Atromitos 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Pankritio Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 52% | Draw 34% | Atromitos 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG OFI 1.48 / Atromitos 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.103 / def 0.806 | Atromitos attack 0.883 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.485 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: OFI (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Atromitos xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Atromitos kick off?
OFI vs Atromitos is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Pankritio Stadium.
Where is OFI vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Pankritio Stadium.
What competition is OFI vs Atromitos part of?
OFI vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 52% chance of winning, Atromitos a 14% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both OFI and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Atromitos?
Record (10 meetings): OFI 2W | Draws 6 | Atromitos 2W.
What form are OFI and Atromitos in?
OFI (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Atromitos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
OFI's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Atromitos's attack (0.88x) against OFI's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
The sample (29/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
52%
1.92
34%
2.99
14%
6.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
OFI xG
Total xG
2.19
0.71
Atromitos xG
1.92
52%
Home win
2.99
34%
Draw
6.95
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
3%
30.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 11.8 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are OFI and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for OFI and 0.71 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OFI come into this having played 35 games, going 14W 3D 18L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Atromitos sit at 1.23 PPG from 35 outings (11W 10D 14L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Atromitos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for OFI against 1.23 for Atromitos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
OFI's home form reads 10W 0D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — OFI are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Atromitos have taken 1.31 points per game from 16 outings (6W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
OFI are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.34 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Early Season
Atromitos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Atromitos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 14W 3D 18L in their last 35 games (1.29 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 11W 10D 14L in their last 35 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Atromitos away?
OFI's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.88 PPG; Atromitos away: 1.31 PPG.
Have OFI or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Atromitos in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OFI have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atromitos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
OFI
6
Draws
2
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 2, Atromitos have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Atromitos 1-2 OFI.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 19% (OFI) and 38% (Atromitos) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (OFI) and 56% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Atromitos in 38%; OFI have failed to score in 31% of games; Atromitos in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 19% of OFI's recent matches and 38% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of OFI's recent games and 56% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Atromitos tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.