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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Atromitos cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over OFI.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atromitos beat OFI 1-3 at Pankritio Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.31 xG and Atromitos 1.17 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Atromitos outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.07 / defence 1.07 against Atromitos attack 0.84 / defence 0.82, drawn from 32/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OFI 39% | Draw 29% | Atromitos 32%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Atromitos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 60%, Atromitos 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OFI's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Atromitos's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — OFI 1.16 PPG, Atromitos 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights