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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Asteras Tripolis cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over OFI.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Asteras Tripolis beat OFI 0-2 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Conference League Play-off Group - 4, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.46 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.20 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. OFI fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.12 / defence 1.20 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OFI 43% | Draw 26% | Asteras Tripolis 31%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Asteras Tripolis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 56%, Asteras Tripolis 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OFI's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — OFI 1.15 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights