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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as OFI defy the odds to beat Asteras Tripolis 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OFI beat Asteras Tripolis 2-1 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.23 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.51 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.07 / defence 1.35 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.98 / defence 1.00, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OFI 31% | Draw 25% | Asteras Tripolis 44%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual OFI win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 54%, Asteras Tripolis 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OFI's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — OFI 1.13 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights