OFI 1-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 46%, yet in-form Aris Thessalonikis provide a compelling counter-argument — this OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Conference League Play-off Group - 5 as OFI welcome Aris Thessalonikis to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
OFI — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
OFI at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Aris Thessalonikis's 2.10 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of OFI's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for OFI, 2 for Aris Thessalonikis and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 52% versus Aris Thessalonikis 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 56% | Aris Thessalonikis 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.63 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.122 / defence 1.190 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.968 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Data: 52 OFI games / 52 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 46% | Draw 24% | Aris Thessalonikis 30%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Aris Thessalonikis 3.33. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Aris Thessalonikis (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: OFI 40% | Aris Thessalonikis 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Conference League Play-off Group - 5 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 46% | Draw 24% | Aris Thessalonikis 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG OFI 1.63 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.122 / def 1.190 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.968 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: OFI (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Aris Thessalonikis xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
OFI 1 - 1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Conference League Play-off Group - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 46% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both OFI and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (4 meetings): OFI 2W | Draws 0 | Aris Thessalonikis 2W.
What form are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis in?
OFI (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from OFI's attack rating (1.12) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
46%
2.17
24%
4.11
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
OFI xG
Total xG
2.89
1.26
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.17
46%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
6%
17.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for OFI and 1.26 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, OFI have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 17W 20D 26L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 30W 14D 19L from 63 games, 1.65 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Aris Thessalonikis are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against OFI.
Venue Form
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.35 PPG from 31 outings (11W 9D 11L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 12W 7D 12L from 31 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.32 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Current Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 17W 20D 26L in their last 63 games (1.13 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 30W 14D 19L in their last 63 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Aris Thessalonikis's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.35 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.39 PPG.
Have OFI or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Aris Thessalonikis have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2025, when OFI won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
OFI
1
Draws
5
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 4, Aris Thessalonikis have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 52%, Aris Thessalonikis 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (OFI) and 36% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis in 42%; OFI have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of OFI's recent matches and 42% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of OFI's recent games and 36% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OFI and Aris Thessalonikis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Conference League Play-off Group - 5, as OFI and Aris Thessalonikis drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.63 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.26 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.12 / defence 1.19 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.97 / defence 1.15, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 46% | Draw 24% | Aris Thessalonikis 30%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 56%, Aris Thessalonikis 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.