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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AEK Athens FC edge out OFI 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AEK Athens FC beat OFI 0-1 at Pankritio Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.41 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.43 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. OFI fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.07 / defence 1.20 against AEK Athens FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.89, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OFI 36% | Draw 27% | AEK Athens FC 37%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 62%, AEK Athens FC 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OFI's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights