OFI vs AEK Athens FC – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AEK Athens FC edge out OFI 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AEK Athens FC beat OFI 1-2 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.17 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.20 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. AEK Athens FC outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.93 / defence 1.19 against AEK Athens FC attack 0.81 / defence 0.97, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OFI 34% | Draw 31% | AEK Athens FC 35%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 54%, AEK Athens FC 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OFI's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. OFI (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights