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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Levadiakos edge out Volos NFC 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levadiakos beat Volos NFC 3-2 at Stadio Levadias, Relegation Round - 10, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.30 xG and Volos NFC 1.11 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Levadiakos beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Volos NFC outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.92 / defence 1.18 against Volos NFC attack 0.86 / defence 1.11, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 41% | Draw 27% | Volos NFC 32%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 51%, Volos NFC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levadiakos's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Volos NFC's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.34 PPG, Volos NFC 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights