Levadiakos 3-3 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Levadiakos take on PAS Giannina.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
PAS Giannina travel to Stadio Levadias to take on Levadiakos in Super League 1 (Relegation Round - 7). The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 May 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Levadiakos have gone 2W 6D 2L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, PAS Giannina stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
PAS Giannina's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Levadiakos) versus 1.20 (PAS Giannina). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Levadiakos, 2 for PAS Giannina and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 7 Jan 2023, ended Levadiakos 1–3 PAS Giannina — a PAS Giannina win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Levadiakos in-play and half-time data (last 32 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
PAS Giannina in-play and half-time data (last 32 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 44% versus PAS Giannina 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 38% | PAS Giannina 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.98 xG and PAS Giannina 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.712 / defence 1.069 | PAS Giannina attack 0.976 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.001. Levadiakos's attack rating of 0.712 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Levadiakos's last 26 games and PAS Giannina's last 52.
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 29% | Draw 38% | PAS Giannina 32%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 3.42 | Draw 2.60 | PAS Giannina 3.09. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Levadiakos's last 10 home games and PAS Giannina's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Levadiakos 40% (last 10 home games) | PAS Giannina 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 7 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 29% | Draw 38% | PAS Giannina 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Levadiakos 0.98 / PAS Giannina 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.712 / def 1.069 | PAS Giannina attack 0.976 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.001 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.04
PAS Giannina xG
45%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina FAQs
What time does Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina?
Levadiakos 3 - 3 PAS Giannina.
Where is Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina part of?
Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Round - 7) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 29% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 32% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Levadiakos and PAS Giannina will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Levadiakos's attack at 0.71x the league average against PAS Giannina's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAS Giannina's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Levadiakos's last 26 games and PAS Giannina's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.42
38%
2.60
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.03
1.04
PAS Giannina xG
3.42
29%
Home win
2.60
38%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
10%
9.70
12%
8.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 13.7 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.04 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 32 outings, Levadiakos have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 4W 13D 15L record — D-W-D-D-D across the most recent five.
PAS Giannina's form line: 7W 12D 13L from 32 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levadiakos on 0.78 PPG, PAS Giannina on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Levadiakos have posted 1.07 PPG from their last 15 home games (3W 7D 5L).
On the road, PAS Giannina have gone 2W 6D 7L from their last 15 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Levadiakos are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 0.94 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Current Season
PAS Giannina
Current Season
Levadiakos (Home) vs PAS Giannina (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Levadiakos
Current Season
PAS Giannina
Current Season
❓ Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina Form FAQs
What form are Levadiakos and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 4W 13D 15L in their last 32 games (0.78 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 7W 12D 13L in their last 32 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or PAS Giannina away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.07 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 13 May 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Levadiakos's record when hosting PAS Giannina specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Levadiakos
1
Draws
2
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and PAS Giannina?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Levadiakos have won 0, PAS Giannina have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and PAS Giannina last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 May 2023: Levadiakos 3-3 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and PAS Giannina?
PAS Giannina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 47%, PAS Giannina 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Levadiakos and 40% for PAS Giannina.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos have failed to score in 40% of games; PAS Giannina in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Levadiakos and PAS Giannina matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 60% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Levadiakos and PAS Giannina matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Levadiakos's recent games and 40% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and PAS Giannina matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 53% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 60% of PAS Giannina's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levadiakos and PAS Giannina share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Levadias, Relegation Round - 7, as Levadiakos and PAS Giannina drew 3-3 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 0.98 xG and PAS Giannina 1.04 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Levadiakos beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAS Giannina outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.71 / defence 1.07 against PAS Giannina attack 0.98 / defence 1.11, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 29% | Draw 38% | PAS Giannina 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 38%, PAS Giannina 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levadiakos 0.78 PPG, PAS Giannina 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.