Levadiakos vs PAOK – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours PAOK (35%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Levadiakos face PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAOK make the trip to Levadia Stadium to face Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Levadia Stadium, Levadiakos have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Levadia Stadium than their overall form suggests.
PAOK have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
PAOK arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 7 meetings, PAOK have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Levadiakos's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2026, ended 0–4 with PAOK winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PAOK have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Levadiakos — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
PAOK — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 45% versus PAOK 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 57% | PAOK 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.15 xG and PAOK 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.749 / defence 0.937 | PAOK attack 1.273 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.034. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.273 — the away xG of 1.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Levadiakos games / 36 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 31% | Draw 35% | PAOK 35%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | PAOK 2.86. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 40% | PAOK 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 31% | Draw 35% | PAOK 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 52% | xG Levadiakos 1.15 / PAOK 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.749 / def 0.937 | PAOK attack 1.273 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.23
PAOK xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs PAOK kick off?
Levadiakos vs PAOK is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Levadia Stadium.
Where is Levadiakos vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs PAOK part of?
Levadiakos vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 31% chance of winning, PAOK a 35% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Levadiakos and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and PAOK?
Record (7 meetings): Levadiakos 0W | Draws 1 | PAOK 6W.
What form are Levadiakos and PAOK in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. PAOK (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (0.75) and PAOK's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.27x) against Levadiakos's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
31%
3.27
35%
2.89
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.38
1.23
PAOK xG
3.27
31%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
9%
11.21
11%
9.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.4 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.23 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Levadiakos come into this having played 42 games, going 16W 10D 16L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 1.98 PPG from 42 outings (24W 11D 7L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Levadiakos's home form reads 11W 4D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, PAOK have taken 1.48 points per game from 21 outings (8W 7D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAOK's season.
Attack vs Defence
Levadiakos are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.86 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and PAOK in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 16W 10D 16L in their last 42 games (1.38 PPG), while PAOK have gone 24W 11D 7L in their last 42 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or PAOK away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.76 PPG; PAOK away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, PAOK in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: PAOK have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 4-0 on 23 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Levadiakos
1
Draws
6
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and PAOK?
From 7 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 0, PAOK have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when PAOK 4-0 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 48%, PAOK 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Levadiakos and 67% for PAOK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Levadiakos have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play PAOK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Levadiakos's games and 67% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Levadiakos vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Levadiakos's matches and 67% of PAOK's.
Do Levadiakos and PAOK tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, PAOK in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.