Levadiakos vs PAOK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Levadiakos face PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAOK make the trip to Levadia Stadium to face Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Levadia Stadium, Levadiakos have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
PAOK have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAOK's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
PAOK arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 7 meetings, PAOK have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Levadiakos's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2026, ended 0–4 with PAOK winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PAOK have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Levadiakos — key trading statistics (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
PAOK — key trading statistics (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 49% versus PAOK 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 60% | PAOK 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.97 xG and PAOK 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.707 / defence 1.210 | PAOK attack 1.350 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 0.993. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.707 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.350 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 31 Levadiakos games / 31 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 19% | Draw 31% | PAOK 50%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 5.26 | Draw 3.23 | PAOK 2.00. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 50% | PAOK 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 19% | Draw 31% | PAOK 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Levadiakos 0.97 / PAOK 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.707 / def 1.210 | PAOK attack 1.350 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.367 / away 0.993 • Poisson stance: PAOK (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.62
PAOK xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs PAOK kick off?
Levadiakos vs PAOK is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Levadia Stadium.
Where is Levadiakos vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs PAOK part of?
Levadiakos vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 19% chance of winning, PAOK a 50% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Levadiakos and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and PAOK?
Record (7 meetings): Levadiakos 0W | Draws 1 | PAOK 6W.
What form are Levadiakos and PAOK in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. PAOK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (0.71) and PAOK's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.35x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
19%
5.14
31%
3.23
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.59
1.62
PAOK xG
5.14
19%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
4%
26.01
19%
5.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 12.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.62 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Levadiakos come into this having played 37 games, going 15W 8D 14L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 2.05 PPG from 37 outings (22W 10D 5L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Levadiakos's home form reads 10W 3D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, PAOK have taken 1.58 points per game from 19 outings (8W 6D 5L). That's a step down from their 2.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAOK's season.
Attack vs Defence
Levadiakos are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.92 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Early Season
PAOK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and PAOK in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 15W 8D 14L in their last 37 games (1.43 PPG), while PAOK have gone 22W 10D 5L in their last 37 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or PAOK away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.74 PPG; PAOK away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, PAOK in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: PAOK have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 4-0 on 23 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Levadiakos
1
Draws
6
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and PAOK?
From 7 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 0, PAOK have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when PAOK 4-0 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 53%, PAOK 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Levadiakos and 68% for PAOK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play PAOK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Levadiakos's games and 63% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Levadiakos vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Levadiakos's matches and 68% of PAOK's.
Do Levadiakos and PAOK tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, PAOK in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.