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Shock result as PAOK defy the odds to beat Levadiakos 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAOK beat Levadiakos 2-3 at Levadia Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 2.04 xG and PAOK 1.81 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. PAOK outscored their 1.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.53 / defence 1.00 against PAOK attack 1.51 / defence 0.94, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 44% | Draw 21% | PAOK 35%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual PAOK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 56%, PAOK 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levadiakos's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

PAOK's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.60 PPG, PAOK 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAOK win broke the near-deadlock. Levadiakos (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights