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Dominant Levadiakos run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Panserraikos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levadiakos beat Panserraikos 5-2 at Levadia Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 2.63 xG and Panserraikos 0.92 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Levadiakos beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Panserraikos outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.39 / defence 0.87 against Panserraikos attack 0.85 / defence 1.30, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 73% | Draw 16% | Panserraikos 10%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 53%, Panserraikos 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levadiakos's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Panserraikos's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Levadiakos arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm. Panserraikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights