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Dominant Levadiakos run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Panserraikos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levadiakos beat Panserraikos 3-0 at Stadio Levadias, Relegation Round - 2, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.51 xG and Panserraikos 1.19 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Levadiakos beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Panserraikos landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.93 / defence 1.19 against Panserraikos attack 0.92 / defence 1.28, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 45% | Draw 25% | Panserraikos 30%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 48%, Panserraikos 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levadiakos's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Panserraikos's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.15 PPG, Panserraikos 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights