🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Levadiakos run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Panetolikos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levadiakos beat Panetolikos 6-0 at Levadia Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.27 xG and Panetolikos 1.10 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Levadiakos beat their projection by 4.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Panetolikos landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.26 / defence 0.94 against Panetolikos attack 0.95 / defence 0.73, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 40% | Draw 29% | Panetolikos 32%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 54%, Panetolikos 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levadiakos's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Panetolikos's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.39 PPG, Panetolikos 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights