Levadiakos 0-2 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Levadiakos and Panathinaikos meet at Levadia Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Monday 31 August 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Levadiakos have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Levadia Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Levadia Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Panathinaikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Panathinaikos haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Panathinaikos's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Levadiakos, 1.30 for Panathinaikos — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Panathinaikos hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 1–4 with Panathinaikos winning.
It is worth noting that Panathinaikos have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Panathinaikos half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 53% versus Panathinaikos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 66% | Panathinaikos 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.54 xG and Panathinaikos 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.061 / defence 1.029 | Panathinaikos attack 1.085 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 0.956. Data: 27 Levadiakos games / 26 Panathinaikos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 46% | Draw 29% | Panathinaikos 24%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Panathinaikos 4.17. Levadiakos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levadiakos if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 70% | Panathinaikos 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 31 Aug 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 46% | Draw 29% | Panathinaikos 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Levadiakos 1.54 / Panathinaikos 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 1.061 / def 1.029 | Panathinaikos attack 1.085 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.542 / away 0.956 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Panathinaikos xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 16:30 on Monday 31 August 2026 at Levadia Stadium.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos?
Levadiakos 0 - 2 Panathinaikos.
Where is Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos part of?
Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 46% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Levadiakos and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Panathinaikos?
Record (6 meetings): Levadiakos 0W | Draws 1 | Panathinaikos 5W.
What form are Levadiakos and Panathinaikos in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Panathinaikos (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Levadiakos's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Panathinaikos's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (1.08x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
The sample (27/26 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.41
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.61
1.07
Panathinaikos xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
5%
19.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.1 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.07 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, Levadiakos have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 14W 7D 11L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Panathinaikos's form line: 14W 10D 8L from 32 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. Panathinaikos haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Levadiakos against 1.62 for Panathinaikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Levadiakos have posted 2.00 PPG from 15 outings (9W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Levadiakos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Panathinaikos have gone 6W 4D 5L from 15 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Levadiakos are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.47 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Early Season
Panathinaikos
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 14W 7D 11L in their last 32 games (1.53 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 14W 10D 8L in their last 32 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Panathinaikos away?
Levadiakos's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 2.00 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Panathinaikos have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Panathinaikos won 1-4 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Levadiakos
1
Draws
6
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Panathinaikos?
From 7 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 0, Panathinaikos have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Levadiakos 0-2 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 60%, Panathinaikos 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Levadiakos) and 47% (Panathinaikos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Panathinaikos in 33%; Panathinaikos in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 40% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Levadiakos's matches and 47% of Panathinaikos's.
Do Levadiakos and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panathinaikos cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Levadiakos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Levadiakos 0-2 at Levadia Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.54 xG and Panathinaikos 1.07 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Levadiakos fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Panathinaikos outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.06 / defence 1.03 against Panathinaikos attack 1.08 / defence 0.94, drawn from 27/26 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 46% | Draw 29% | Panathinaikos 24%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Panathinaikos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 66%, Panathinaikos 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.53 PPG, Panathinaikos 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panathinaikos win broke the near-deadlock. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.