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Dominant Panathinaikos run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Levadiakos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panathinaikos beat Levadiakos 1-4 at Levadia Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.69 xG and Panathinaikos 1.04 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Panathinaikos outscored their 1.04 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.40 / defence 0.94 against Panathinaikos attack 1.01 / defence 0.87, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 52% | Draw 24% | Panathinaikos 23%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Panathinaikos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 58%, Panathinaikos 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levadiakos's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Panathinaikos's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.58 PPG, Panathinaikos 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panathinaikos win broke the near-deadlock. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights