Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to Levadia Stadium to face Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Levadiakos have posted 5W 2D 3L at Levadia Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Olympiakos Piraeus, who have claimed 4 wins from 6 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 51% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 63% | Olympiakos Piraeus 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.85 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.749 / defence 1.248 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.059 / defence 0.738. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 0.962. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.738 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 29 Levadiakos games / 29 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 21% | Draw 37% | Olympiakos Piraeus 42%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 4.76 | Draw 2.70 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 60% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 21% | Draw 37% | Olympiakos Piraeus 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Levadiakos 0.85 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.749 / def 1.248 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.059 / def 0.738 | league avg home 1.545 / away 0.962 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Levadia Stadium.
Where is Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 21% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 42% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (6 meetings): Levadiakos 0W | Draws 2 | Olympiakos Piraeus 4W.
What form are Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (0.75) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.06x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
The sample (29/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
21%
4.73
37%
2.73
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.12
1.27
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
4.73
21%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
6%
16.88
18%
5.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 15.2 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.27 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Levadiakos's recent record stands at 15W 7D 13L from 35 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Olympiakos Piraeus, meanwhile, have gone 21W 10D 4L across 35 games — 2.09 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levadiakos heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Levadiakos have managed 10W 3D 5L from 18 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record stands at 10W 6D 2L across 18 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Levadiakos are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.54 scored and 0.51 conceded. Levadiakos's scoring rate against Olympiakos Piraeus's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Early Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 15W 7D 13L in their last 35 games (1.49 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 21W 10D 4L in their last 35 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.83 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 6-0 on 5 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Levadiakos
2
Draws
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 6 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Levadiakos 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 56%, Olympiakos Piraeus 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Levadiakos) and 33% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 44% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Levadiakos's recent games and 33% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.