Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908 – Pre-Match Analysis

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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Levadia Stadium plays host to Levadiakos versus Iraklis 1908 in Super League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 16 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Levadiakos have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Levadia Stadium, Levadiakos have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Levadia Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Iraklis 1908 (all games): 1W 4D 4L across 9 Super League 1 outings this term — 0.78 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.89 per game is modest, conceding 1.56 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Iraklis 1908, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Iraklis 1908 have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Levadiakos, 0.78 for Iraklis 1908 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Levadiakos, 1 for Iraklis 1908 and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Oct 2026, ended 0–2 with Iraklis 1908 winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 89% of games.

Iraklis 1908 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Levadiakos 0% | Iraklis 1908 56%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levadiakos 22% | Iraklis 1908 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.18 xG and Iraklis 1908 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.741 / defence 0.939 | Iraklis 1908 attack 0.741 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.010. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Levadiakos games / 9 Iraklis 1908 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Levadiakos 46% | Draw 34% | Iraklis 1908 20%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.17 | Draw 2.94 | Iraklis 1908 5.00. Levadiakos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Levadiakos at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levadiakos if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 1.88 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 40% | Iraklis 1908 60%.

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