Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Levadiakos at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Levadia Stadium plays host to Levadiakos versus Iraklis 1908 in Super League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 16 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Levadiakos have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Levadia Stadium, Levadiakos have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Levadia Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Iraklis 1908 (all games): 0W 2D 2L across 4 Super League 1 outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Iraklis 1908 have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Levadiakos's favour (1.10 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
Iraklis 1908 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Levadiakos 0% | Iraklis 1908 50%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levadiakos 25% | Iraklis 1908 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.36 xG and Iraklis 1908 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.747 / defence 1.271 | Iraklis 1908 attack 0.800 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 0.917. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Iraklis 1908 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Levadiakos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Levadiakos games / 4 Iraklis 1908 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 43% | Draw 35% | Iraklis 1908 22%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.33 | Draw 2.86 | Iraklis 1908 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Levadiakos at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levadiakos if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 60% | Iraklis 1908 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908 | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 43% | Draw 35% | Iraklis 1908 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG Levadiakos 1.36 / Iraklis 1908 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.747 / def 1.271 | Iraklis 1908 attack 0.800 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.489 / away 0.917 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Iraklis 1908 xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908 kick off?
Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908 is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 January 2027 at Levadia Stadium.
Where is Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908 being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908 part of?
Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908 is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 43% chance of winning, Iraklis 1908 a 22% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Levadiakos and Iraklis 1908 will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Iraklis 1908?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Levadiakos and Iraklis 1908 in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Iraklis 1908 (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Levadiakos's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Iraklis 1908's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Iraklis 1908's attack (0.80x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 30/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
43%
2.33
35%
2.84
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.29
0.93
Iraklis 1908 xG
2.33
43%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
6%
17.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.8 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Iraklis 1908 expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Levadiakos and 0.93 for Iraklis 1908, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 4 outings, Levadiakos have picked up 0.25 PPG on a 0W 1D 3L record — L-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Iraklis 1908's form line: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Iraklis 1908, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.25 PPG for Levadiakos against 0.50 for Iraklis 1908. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Levadiakos are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Iraklis 1908 are on 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Early Season
Iraklis 1908
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Iraklis 1908 in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Iraklis 1908 have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 (0.50 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Iraklis 1908 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Levadiakos) and 50% (Iraklis 1908) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Levadiakos and 25% for Iraklis 1908.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos have failed to score in 100% of games; Iraklis 1908 in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Iraklis 1908 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Iraklis 1908?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 50% of Iraklis 1908's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Levadiakos's recent games and 25% of Iraklis 1908's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Iraklis 1908 tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Iraklis 1908 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.