Levadiakos 1-0 Ionikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Levadiakos take on Ionikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Levadiakos and Ionikos meet at Stadio Levadias in Super League 1, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 28 December 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's home record at Stadio Levadias: 1W 3D 2L from 6 Super League 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ionikos (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ionikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ionikos's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Levadiakos 0W, Ionikos 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Ionikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 50% versus Ionikos 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levadiakos 36% | Ionikos 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.14 xG and Ionikos 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.814 / defence 1.098 | Ionikos attack 0.940 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.056. Data: 14 Levadiakos games / 40 Ionikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 33% | Draw 37% | Ionikos 30%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 3.03 | Draw 2.70 | Ionikos 3.33. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 67% | Ionikos 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Ionikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Dec 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 33% | Draw 37% | Ionikos 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 49% | xG Levadiakos 1.14 / Ionikos 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.814 / def 1.098 | Ionikos attack 0.940 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Ionikos xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Ionikos kick off?
Levadiakos vs Ionikos kicked off at 15:00 on Wednesday 28 December 2022 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Ionikos?
Levadiakos 1 - 0 Ionikos.
Where is Levadiakos vs Ionikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Ionikos part of?
Levadiakos vs Ionikos is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Ionikos?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 33% chance of winning, Ionikos a 30% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Ionikos?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Levadiakos and Ionikos will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Ionikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Ionikos?
Record (1 meetings): Levadiakos 0W | Draws 1 | Ionikos 0W.
What form are Levadiakos and Ionikos in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Ionikos (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Levadiakos's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Ionikos's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Ionikos's attack (0.94x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 14/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.04
37%
2.71
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.23
1.09
Ionikos xG
3.04
33%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
11%
9.04
10%
10.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.7 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Ionikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Ionikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.09 for Ionikos, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Ionikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Levadiakos come into this having played 14 games, going 1W 5D 8L for 0.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ionikos sit at 0.57 PPG from 14 outings (1W 5D 8L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Ionikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.57 PPG for Levadiakos against 0.57 for Ionikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Levadiakos's home form reads 1W 3D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.57 PPG overall — Levadiakos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ionikos have taken 0.50 points per game from 6 outings (1W 0D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Levadiakos are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Ionikos are on 0.79 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
Ionikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Ionikos in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 1W 5D 8L in their last 14 games (0.57 PPG), while Ionikos have gone 1W 5D 8L in their last 14 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Ionikos away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.00 PPG; Ionikos away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ionikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Levadiakos
2
Draws
0
Ionikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Ionikos?
From 3 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 1, Ionikos have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Ionikos last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Levadiakos 2-2 Ionikos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Ionikos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 67%, Ionikos 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Levadiakos and 50% for Ionikos.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos have failed to score in 33% of games; Ionikos in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Ionikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Ionikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Levadiakos's games and 50% of Ionikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Levadiakos vs Ionikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Levadiakos's recent games and 50% of Ionikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Ionikos tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ionikos in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Levadiakos edge out Ionikos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat Ionikos 1-0 at Stadio Levadias, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.14 xG and Ionikos 1.09 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ionikos landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.81 / defence 1.10 against Ionikos attack 0.94 / defence 1.16, drawn from 14/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 33% | Draw 37% | Ionikos 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Levadiakos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 36%, Ionikos 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Ionikos's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levadiakos 0.57 PPG, Ionikos 0.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Levadiakos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Ionikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.