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Prediction vindicated as Atromitos edge out Levadiakos 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atromitos beat Levadiakos 1-2 at Stadio Levadias, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.09 xG and Atromitos 1.44 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.94 / defence 1.12 against Atromitos attack 1.11 / defence 0.89, drawn from 24/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 29% | Draw 26% | Atromitos 45%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 46%, Atromitos 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levadiakos's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Atromitos's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.12 PPG, Atromitos 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights