Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis meet at Levadia Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 December 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos at Levadia Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Asteras Tripolis have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Asteras Tripolis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Asteras Tripolis have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Levadiakos have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Asteras Tripolis in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Levadiakos, 1 for Asteras Tripolis and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2026, ended 3–1 with Levadiakos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Levadiakos — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Asteras Tripolis — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 51% versus Asteras Tripolis 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 63% | Asteras Tripolis 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.17 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.768 / defence 1.225 | Asteras Tripolis attack 1.069 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.004. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Levadiakos games / 29 Asteras Tripolis games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 30% | Draw 33% | Asteras Tripolis 37%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Asteras Tripolis 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Asteras Tripolis are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 60% | Asteras Tripolis 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 30% | Draw 33% | Asteras Tripolis 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG Levadiakos 1.17 / Asteras Tripolis 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.768 / def 1.225 | Asteras Tripolis attack 1.069 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.004 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Asteras Tripolis xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Levadia Stadium.
Where is Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 30% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (7 meetings): Levadiakos 2W | Draws 4 | Asteras Tripolis 1W.
What form are Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (0.77) and Asteras Tripolis's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (1.07x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
The sample (29/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
30%
3.34
33%
3.00
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.49
1.31
Asteras Tripolis xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
8%
12.45
11%
8.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.31 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Levadiakos come into this having played 35 games, going 15W 7D 13L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Asteras Tripolis sit at 1.09 PPG from 35 outings (9W 11D 15L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Levadiakos against 1.09 for Asteras Tripolis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Levadiakos's home form reads 9W 3D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Asteras Tripolis have taken 0.88 points per game from 17 outings (3W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Levadiakos are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.03 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Early Season
Asteras Tripolis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 15W 7D 13L in their last 35 games (1.49 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 9W 11D 15L in their last 35 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.76 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Levadiakos
4
Draws
1
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis?
From 7 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 2, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Levadiakos 3-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 53%, Asteras Tripolis 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Levadiakos) and 41% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis in 35%; Asteras Tripolis in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 47% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Levadiakos's recent games and 41% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.