Levadiakos 3-0 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Aris Thessalonikis (35%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Levadiakos face Aris Thessalonikis.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Levadia Municipal Stadium plays host to Levadiakos versus Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 1 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Levadiakos (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Levadia Municipal Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Levadia Municipal Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Aris Thessalonikis are the stronger side — 1.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Levadiakos, 3 for Aris Thessalonikis and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 0–3 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 45% versus Aris Thessalonikis 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 55% | Aris Thessalonikis 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.06 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.591 / defence 1.022 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.020 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.084. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.591 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Levadiakos games / 34 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 31% | Draw 34% | Aris Thessalonikis 35%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 40% | Aris Thessalonikis 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Levadia Municipal Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 31% | Draw 34% | Aris Thessalonikis 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Levadiakos 1.06 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.591 / def 1.022 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.020 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Aris Thessalonikis xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Levadia Municipal Stadium.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Levadiakos 3 - 0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Municipal Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 31% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (8 meetings): Levadiakos 1W | Draws 4 | Aris Thessalonikis 3W.
What form are Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Levadiakos's attack at 0.59x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (1.02x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
31%
3.19
34%
2.97
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.19
1.13
Aris Thessalonikis xG
3.19
31%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
10%
9.86
12%
8.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.13 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Levadiakos come into this having played 40 games, going 15W 10D 15L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-D. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Aris Thessalonikis sit at 1.55 PPG from 40 outings (16W 14D 10L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Levadiakos against 1.55 for Aris Thessalonikis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Levadiakos's home form reads 10W 4D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Aris Thessalonikis have taken 1.40 points per game from 20 outings (8W 4D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Levadiakos are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.18 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 15W 10D 15L in their last 40 games (1.38 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 16W 14D 10L in their last 40 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.70 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Aris Thessalonikis won 3-0 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Levadiakos
4
Draws
3
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 9 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 2, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Levadiakos 3-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 50%, Aris Thessalonikis 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Levadiakos) and 45% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Levadiakos have failed to score in 30% of games; Aris Thessalonikis in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 50% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Levadiakos's recent games and 45% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Levadiakos run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Aris Thessalonikis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat Aris Thessalonikis 3-0 at Levadia Municipal Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.06 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.13 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Levadiakos beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Aris Thessalonikis landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.59 / defence 1.02 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.02 / defence 1.08, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 31% | Draw 34% | Aris Thessalonikis 35%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Levadiakos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 55%, Aris Thessalonikis 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.38 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.