Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 38%, yet in-form Aris Thessalonikis provide a compelling counter-argument — this Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Levadia Stadium plays host to Levadiakos versus Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 31 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

Levadiakos (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Levadia Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, Aris Thessalonikis are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Levadiakos, 3 for Aris Thessalonikis and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 0–3 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.

Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 51% versus Aris Thessalonikis 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 63% | Aris Thessalonikis 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.49 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.762 / defence 1.232 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.065 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 0.998. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 1.49 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Aris Thessalonikis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.314 — this is suppressing Levadiakos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Levadiakos games / 29 Aris Thessalonikis games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Levadiakos 38% | Draw 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 30%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Aris Thessalonikis 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Aris Thessalonikis (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levadiakos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 60% | Aris Thessalonikis 50% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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