Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 37%, yet in-form AEK Athens FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AEK Athens FC make the trip to Levadia Stadium to face Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Levadiakos have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos at Levadia Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Levadia Stadium than their overall form suggests.
AEK Athens FC (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 7D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. AEK Athens FC are 1.30 PPG clear of Levadiakos in recent Super League 1 fixtures (1.90 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 6 meetings, AEK Athens FC have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Levadiakos's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2026, ended 0–4 with AEK Athens FC winning.
It is worth noting that AEK Athens FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
AEK Athens FC half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 42% versus AEK Athens FC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 55% | AEK Athens FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.09 xG and AEK Athens FC 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.739 / defence 0.944 | AEK Athens FC attack 0.988 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.022. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Levadiakos games / 34 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 37% | Draw 34% | AEK Athens FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | AEK Athens FC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Levadiakos at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AEK Athens FC (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levadiakos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 40% | AEK Athens FC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 37% | Draw 34% | AEK Athens FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Levadiakos 1.09 / AEK Athens FC 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.739 / def 0.944 | AEK Athens FC attack 0.988 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.022 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
0.95
AEK Athens FC xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Levadia Stadium.
Where is Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 37% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC?
Record (6 meetings): Levadiakos 0W | Draws 1 | AEK Athens FC 5W.
What form are Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Levadiakos's attack at 0.74x the league average against AEK Athens FC's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AEK Athens FC's attack (0.99x) against Levadiakos's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
37%
2.72
34%
2.95
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.05
0.95
AEK Athens FC xG
2.72
37%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
10%
10.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Levadiakos and 0.95 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, Levadiakos have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 15W 10D 15L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AEK Athens FC's form line: 26W 11D 3L from 40 games, 2.22 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AEK Athens FC are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Levadiakos.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Levadiakos have posted 1.70 PPG from 20 outings (10W 4D 6L).
On the road, AEK Athens FC have gone 9W 9D 2L from 20 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AEK Athens FC's season.
Attack vs Defence
Levadiakos are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 1.95 scored and 0.62 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 15W 10D 15L in their last 40 games (1.38 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 26W 11D 3L in their last 40 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or AEK Athens FC away?
AEK Athens FC's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.70 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AEK Athens FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 4-0 on 22 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against AEK Athens FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Levadiakos
1
Draws
5
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 0, AEK Athens FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when AEK Athens FC 4-0 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
AEK Athens FC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 45%, AEK Athens FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Levadiakos) and 35% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: Levadiakos keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; AEK Athens FC in 40%; Levadiakos have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 50% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Levadiakos's recent games and 35% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.