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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as AEK Athens FC defy the odds to beat Levadiakos 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AEK Athens FC beat Levadiakos 0-1 at Levadia Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.46 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.32 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Levadiakos fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.17 / defence 1.14 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 41% | Draw 25% | AEK Athens FC 34%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual AEK Athens FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 53%, AEK Athens FC 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levadiakos's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.53 PPG, AEK Athens FC 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AEK Athens FC win broke the near-deadlock. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights