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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Larisa edge out Panserraikos 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Larisa beat Panserraikos 1-0 at AEL FC Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 1.54 xG and Panserraikos 0.97 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Panserraikos landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.72 / defence 1.19 against Panserraikos attack 0.74 / defence 1.51, drawn from 17/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Larisa 51% | Draw 26% | Panserraikos 24%, with Larisa to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 41%, Panserraikos 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Larisa's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Panserraikos's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 65% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Larisa 0.76 PPG, Panserraikos 0.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Larisa win broke the near-deadlock. Larisa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Panserraikos (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights