🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Panetolikos edge out Larisa 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panetolikos beat Larisa 1-2 at AEL FC Arena, Relegation Group - 2, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 0.88 xG and Panetolikos 1.08 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Panetolikos outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.77 / defence 1.27 against Panetolikos attack 0.80 / defence 0.87, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Larisa 27% | Draw 35% | Panetolikos 38%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 37%, Panetolikos 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Larisa's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Panetolikos's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Larisa 0.85 PPG, Panetolikos 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights