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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Larisa and Panathinaikos share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Larisa and Panathinaikos finished level at 2-2 at AEL FC Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 0.91 xG and Panathinaikos 1.89 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Larisa beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.70 / defence 1.44 against Panathinaikos attack 1.07 / defence 0.93, drawn from 12/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Larisa 18% | Draw 22% | Panathinaikos 60%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 42%, Panathinaikos 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Larisa's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Panathinaikos's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Larisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights