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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Olympiakos Piraeus cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Larisa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Olympiakos Piraeus beat Larisa 0-2 at AEL FC Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 1.20 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.91 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Larisa fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.89 / defence 1.42 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.10 / defence 0.89, drawn from 6/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Larisa 24% | Draw 22% | Olympiakos Piraeus 54%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 33%, Olympiakos Piraeus 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Larisa's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 0.67. Form held, and they took the win. Larisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights