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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Larisa and Kifisia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Larisa and Kifisia finished level at 1-1 at AEL FC Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 1.34 xG and Kifisia 1.23 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Kifisia attack 1.00 / defence 1.36, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Larisa 39% | Draw 27% | Kifisia 34%, with Larisa to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 0%, Kifisia 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Larisa 0.00 PPG, Kifisia 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Larisa scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Kifisia managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights