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Shock result as Lamia defy the odds to beat Volos NFC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lamia beat Volos NFC 1-0 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.10 xG and Volos NFC 1.19 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Volos NFC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.73 / defence 1.20 against Volos NFC attack 0.86 / defence 1.15, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lamia 34% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 38%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Lamia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 59%, Volos NFC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lamia's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Volos NFC's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lamia 0.74 PPG, Volos NFC 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamia win broke the near-deadlock. Lamia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights