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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lamia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Panathinaikos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lamia beat Panathinaikos 3-1 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.61 xG and Panathinaikos 1.34 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lamia beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.54 / defence 1.23 against Panathinaikos attack 0.94 / defence 0.88, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lamia 17% | Draw 29% | Panathinaikos 55%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Lamia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 58%, Panathinaikos 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lamia's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Panathinaikos's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with Lamia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights