🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Atromitos run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Lamia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atromitos beat Lamia 0-3 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.97 xG and Atromitos 1.21 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Lamia fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Atromitos outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.69 / defence 0.99 against Atromitos attack 1.03 / defence 1.14, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lamia 29% | Draw 29% | Atromitos 42%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 60%, Atromitos 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lamia's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Atromitos's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lamia 0.80 PPG, Atromitos 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights