Lamia 0-0 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Asteras Tripolis travel to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias to take on Lamia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 October 2024, 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Lamia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamia's home record at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game.
Asteras Tripolis — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Asteras Tripolis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Asteras Tripolis away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Asteras Tripolis are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Lamia have won 4, Asteras Tripolis 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 8 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 2–1 with Lamia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Lamia trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Asteras Tripolis trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 62% versus Asteras Tripolis 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 68% | Asteras Tripolis 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 0.83 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.790 / defence 1.161 | Asteras Tripolis attack 1.160 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.146 / away 1.233. Lamia's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Lamia games / 33 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 16% | Draw 30% | Asteras Tripolis 55%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 6.25 | Draw 3.33 | Asteras Tripolis 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Asteras Tripolis (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Lamia dominate the H2H record, yet Asteras Tripolis are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Lamia 50% | Asteras Tripolis 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 16% | Draw 30% | Asteras Tripolis 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Lamia 0.83 / Asteras Tripolis 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.790 / def 1.161 | Asteras Tripolis attack 1.160 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.146 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (55%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Asteras Tripolis xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Lamia 0 - 0 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 16% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 55% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lamia and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (8 meetings): Lamia 4W | Draws 2 | Asteras Tripolis 2W.
What form are Lamia and Asteras Tripolis in?
Lamia (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lamia's attack at 0.79x the league average against Asteras Tripolis's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Asteras Tripolis's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 0-2 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
16%
6.27
30%
3.38
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.49
1.66
Asteras Tripolis xG
6.27
16%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
3%
32.99
24%
4.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 13.8 | 11.4 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Lamia and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Lamia and 1.66 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 9W 9D 22L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lamia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Asteras Tripolis's form line: 13W 8D 19L from 40 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamia on 0.90 PPG, Asteras Tripolis on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lamia have posted 0.95 PPG from 20 outings (5W 4D 11L).
On the road, Asteras Tripolis have gone 8W 3D 9L from 20 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Asteras Tripolis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamia are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.20 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamia have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Early Season
Asteras Tripolis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 9W 9D 22L in their last 40 games (0.90 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 13W 8D 19L in their last 40 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Asteras Tripolis's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.95 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jan 2023, when Asteras Tripolis won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamia's record when hosting Asteras Tripolis specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lamia
3
Draws
3
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 4, Asteras Tripolis have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2025, when Asteras Tripolis 1-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Asteras Tripolis?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 60%, Asteras Tripolis 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Lamia and 50% for Asteras Tripolis. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Asteras Tripolis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Lamia's games and 55% of Asteras Tripolis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Lamia's matches and 50% of Asteras Tripolis's.
Do Lamia and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lamia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia and Asteras Tripolis finished level at 0-0 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.83 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.66 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lamia fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Asteras Tripolis landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.79 / defence 1.16 against Asteras Tripolis attack 1.16 / defence 0.92, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 16% | Draw 30% | Asteras Tripolis 55%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 68%, Asteras Tripolis 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 0.90 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.