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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AEK Athens FC edge out Lamia 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AEK Athens FC beat Lamia 0-1 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.84 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.07 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lamia fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.69 / defence 0.96 against AEK Athens FC attack 0.85 / defence 0.96, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lamia 28% | Draw 33% | AEK Athens FC 40%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 62%, AEK Athens FC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lamia's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights