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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Panserraikos defy the odds to beat Kifisia 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panserraikos beat Kifisia 1-2 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis, Relegation Group - 1, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kifisia 1.46 xG and Panserraikos 0.99 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Panserraikos outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kifisia attack 0.89 / defence 1.20 against Panserraikos attack 0.77 / defence 1.26, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kifisia 46% | Draw 30% | Panserraikos 24%, with Kifisia to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Panserraikos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kifisia 58%, Panserraikos 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kifisia's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Panserraikos's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kifisia 1.04 PPG, Panserraikos 0.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panserraikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panserraikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights