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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Kifisia run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Panserraikos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kifisia beat Panserraikos 3-0 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kifisia 1.95 xG and Panserraikos 1.66 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Kifisia beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Panserraikos landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kifisia attack 0.94 / defence 1.40 against Panserraikos attack 0.96 / defence 1.45, drawn from 11/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kifisia 45% | Draw 22% | Panserraikos 33%, with Kifisia to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kifisia 73%, Panserraikos 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kifisia's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did not.

Panserraikos's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Kifisia arrived the stronger side — 1.09 PPG against 0.45. Form held, and they took the win. Kifisia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights