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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Kifisia defy the odds to beat Panathinaikos 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kifisia beat Panathinaikos 3-2 at Panthessaliko Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kifisia 1.04 xG and Panathinaikos 1.19 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Kifisia beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Panathinaikos outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kifisia attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Panathinaikos attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 2/27 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Kifisia 32% | Draw 29% | Panathinaikos 39%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Kifisia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kifisia 50%, Panathinaikos 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kifisia 0.50 PPG, Panathinaikos 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kifisia win broke the near-deadlock. Kifisia scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Panathinaikos scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights