🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Kifisia and OFI share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis, Regular Season - 21, as Kifisia and OFI drew 2-2 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kifisia 1.40 xG and OFI 1.18 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. OFI outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kifisia attack 0.78 / defence 1.11 against OFI attack 0.93 / defence 1.31, drawn from 19/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kifisia 42% | Draw 26% | OFI 32%, with Kifisia to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kifisia 58%, OFI 79%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kifisia's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

OFI's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kifisia 1.00 PPG, OFI 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. OFI (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights