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Shock result as Kifisia defy the odds to beat Levadiakos 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kifisia beat Levadiakos 1-0 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kifisia 1.42 xG and Levadiakos 1.65 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Levadiakos landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kifisia attack 0.83 / defence 1.19 against Levadiakos attack 1.25 / defence 1.24, drawn from 21/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kifisia 32% | Draw 26% | Levadiakos 42%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Kifisia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kifisia 57%, Levadiakos 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kifisia's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Levadiakos's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Levadiakos arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Kifisia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kifisia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights