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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Atromitos run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Kifisia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atromitos beat Kifisia 0-3 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis, Relegation Group - 8, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kifisia 0.97 xG and Atromitos 1.18 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Kifisia fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Atromitos outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kifisia attack 0.89 / defence 1.19 against Atromitos attack 0.93 / defence 0.84, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kifisia 28% | Draw 34% | Atromitos 38%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kifisia 52%, Atromitos 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kifisia's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Atromitos's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kifisia 1.12 PPG, Atromitos 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Kifisia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights