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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kallithea cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Volos NFC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kallithea beat Volos NFC 2-0 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kallithea 1.39 xG and Volos NFC 1.57 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Volos NFC landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kallithea attack 0.94 / defence 1.42 against Volos NFC attack 0.94 / defence 1.22, drawn from 18/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kallithea 34% | Draw 24% | Volos NFC 42%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Kallithea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kallithea 50%, Volos NFC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kallithea's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Volos NFC's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Volos NFC arrived the stronger side — 1.11 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Kallithea winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kallithea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights