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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kallithea and Panserraikos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kallithea and Panserraikos finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Relegation Round - 8, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kallithea 1.41 xG and Panserraikos 1.30 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kallithea attack 0.91 / defence 1.27 against Panserraikos attack 0.94 / defence 1.23, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kallithea 40% | Draw 26% | Panserraikos 35%, with Kallithea to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kallithea 48%, Panserraikos 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kallithea's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Panserraikos's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kallithea 0.88 PPG, Panserraikos 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Panserraikos (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights