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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kallithea and Olympiakos Piraeus share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kallithea and Olympiakos Piraeus finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kallithea 0.85 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 2.17 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kallithea attack 0.83 / defence 1.55 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.13 / defence 0.84, drawn from 14/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kallithea 14% | Draw 19% | Olympiakos Piraeus 67%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kallithea 57%, Olympiakos Piraeus 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kallithea's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kallithea (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights