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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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OFI cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kallithea.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OFI beat Kallithea 1-3 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kallithea 1.14 xG and OFI 1.51 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. OFI outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kallithea attack 0.83 / defence 1.26 against OFI attack 1.05 / defence 1.09, drawn from 23/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kallithea 29% | Draw 26% | OFI 46%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kallithea 44%, OFI 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kallithea's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

OFI's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, OFI arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.78. That form edge translated into the three points. Kallithea (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. OFI (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights