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Dominant Levadiakos run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Kallithea.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levadiakos beat Kallithea 0-3 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Relegation Round - 4, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kallithea 1.09 xG and Levadiakos 1.31 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Kallithea fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Levadiakos outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kallithea attack 0.91 / defence 1.28 against Levadiakos attack 0.93 / defence 0.94, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kallithea 31% | Draw 27% | Levadiakos 42%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kallithea 48%, Levadiakos 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kallithea's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Levadiakos's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kallithea 0.86 PPG, Levadiakos 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Kallithea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights